Our tipster Jones Knows thinks Jayden Bogle can fire a shot at goal in a positive Sheffield United result at home to Chelsea on Sunday.
Good riddance to January, I say.
Losing runs are common with my style of punting at big prices and we are in the midst of one, with what seemed like the longest month in the history of the world seeing our betting tank drop from +23 to +5.5. There were a few close calls along the way, mind. The process remains strong, fruit will fall from the tree shortly.
We were a Jake Livermore booking away from a 10/1 return at the weekend as West Brom won the bookings race and got a result at home to Fulham – although in truth, Livermore did not give the referee a decision to make in that regard.
The Rob Holding to score first shout vs Manchester United at 100/1 was always a rogue one. He’s a player on the cusp of a big chance falling his way though. Following him to score over the next few months looks a long-term profitable strategy.
Attention turns to the weekend. There’s a 28/1 shot with exciting potential to attack.
And remember, whatever I tip, I back comrades. We’re in this together.
P+L = +5.5
Chelsea are vulnerable at Bramall Lane with the 4/9 for an away win just begging to be taken on.
It’s far too early to be making sweeping statements regarding Thomas Tuchel’s style and ability to take Chelsea places.
I agreed with Jose Mourinho in the aftermath of Chelsea’s win at Spurs. For all their possession and silky build-up play at Tottenham, Chelsea scored via a penalty and Edouard Mendy did make more saves than Hugo Lloris.
Spurs were not unlucky but Chelsea did not dominate the game to the extent that many onlookers suggested. In the three games under Tuchel, Chelsea have created just two big chances according to Opta – and one of those was that Jorginho penalty. In that period 15 teams have created more big chances and considering Chelsea have played Burnley and Wolves at home in that run, it’s actually a very worrying statistic. Still want to back them at 4/9?
We have not seen Tuchel’s team come under any significant pressure defensively in his first three matches in charge either – but we might here. And, with Thiago Silva missing, they can be got at.
One of Tuchel’s tactical tweaks has been to select Marcos Alonso down the left side of his defence. He seems to trust him but those that have watched Alonso enough over the years know he is very poor positionally. Remember Chelsea’s first-half display against West Brom in September? Alonso was at fault for two of the three goals and never played for Frank Lampard again after that.
I am expecting the axis of Chris Basham and Jayden Bogle down the Blades’ right to expose Alonso when Chris Wilder’s men get the territory.
His link-up with Bogle was very savvy in the comeback win over West Brom – it was the Blades back to their best. A performance level that actually beat Chelsea by an aggregate score of 5-2 over two meetings between the teams last season.
Additionally, in his last three home matches the dangerous Bogle has had eight shots on goal, that makes him an interesting proposition in the shots market, especially up against Alonso.
The 4/1 for a Sheffield United win or draw plus Bogle to have a shot at goal looks an angle to take advantage of.
They must have put something in the water up on Tyneside as Newcastle have become fun to watch. There’s much more energy in the team and the back four are pushing higher up the pitch. In their last three matches, they’ve managed to fire 56 attempts at goal – that’s more than they mustered in their previous seven matches combined before that and Allan Saint-Maximin has yet to play from the start yet.
Yes, Steve Bruce’s boys have lost two of those three fixtures but at least now there’s a bit of spark and enjoyment in their football. It’s all the locals want.
Southampton make the long journey north with problems, too. This current four-game losing run is the longest losing run in Ralph Hasenhuttl’s league managerial career although his injury-list is easing up.
It’s unlikely they’ll shut up shop with the players they have available so this could be an action-packed game if Newcastle arrive in no-fear mode once again. With that in mind, I’m happy to take a swing at the 9/2 for Newcastle to register 16 or more shots at goal.
Miguel Almiron has been one of the players to shine in Bruce’s new attacking style. His position just behind Callum Wilson takes him into some dangerous positions outside the box. This can be seen from his shot-data in the last four matches. He’s had four shots from outside the box in that period, hitting the target twice and clipping the crossbar with a free-kick against Crystal Palace.
Sky Bet have gone 4/1 on the single for him to have another shot on target from outside the area, which is a little large, and I’m happy to throw him in to the Newcastle shots bet to make a very appealing 28/1 price.